She Strengthens

The Illusion of Control: Rethinking Success and Decision-Making

We’ve all been there – scrolling through our favorite online publications, mesmerized by the habits of self-made billionaires and entrepreneurs. Warren Buffett’s morning routine, Elon Musk’s productivity hacks, and Steve Jobs’ innovative thinking are just a few examples of the countless articles that promise to unlock the secrets of success. But have we ever stopped to think about the underlying assumption behind these articles? That by mimicking the habits of the successful, we can replicate their results?

The Epiphany

Recently, I stumbled upon a book that challenged my understanding of decision-making and success. The author, a former professional poker player, argues that analyzing decisions made during poker games can be applied to real-life decision-making. The key takeaway? You never have all the information, and luck always plays a role. This realization was both liberating and unsettling, as it forced me to reexamine my approach to achieving success.

The Limits of Our Brains

Our brains are wired to make decisions based on limited information, often relying on gut instincts and preconceived assumptions. The prefrontal cortex, responsible for deliberative decision-making, can only process so much information before becoming overwhelmed. This is why we often leave small decisions to our gut, leading to biases and false positives.

The Role of Luck

The decisions we make do not guarantee a specified outcome. In fact, luck plays a significant role in every outcome. This is a difficult pill to swallow, especially when we’re conditioned to believe that hard work and dedication are the sole determinants of success. The truth is, even with the best decisions, luck can still intervene, leading to unpredictable outcomes.

Survivorship Bias

We tend to focus on successful individuals, forgetting about those who aren’t. This survivorship bias, also known as “silent evidence,” distorts our understanding of what contributes to success. By studying only the winners, we ignore the millions of others who didn’t make it, leading to flawed conclusions about the factors that led to success.

Rethinking Success

So, what’s the takeaway from all this? That success is not solely dependent on our decisions, but also on luck and circumstances beyond our control. This realization can be both empowering and humbling. It means we can focus on making the best decisions with the information available, without getting caught up in the idea that there’s a secret formula for success.

The Pressure’s Off

By acknowledging the role of luck, we can take some pressure off ourselves. We don’t have to compare ourselves to others or try to replicate their habits. Instead, we can focus on making informed decisions and hoping for the best. This approach requires a mindset shift, one that recognizes the uncertainty inherent in every outcome.

The Value of Uncertainty

In conclusion, embracing uncertainty can be liberating. It means we can stop trying to control every aspect of our lives and instead focus on making the best decisions possible with the information we have. So, the next time you come across an article touting the habits of successful entrepreneurs, remember that there’s more to the story than meets the eye.